Contact Person:
Dr. Stefan Liehr, liehr@isoe.de
Dr. Florian Keil, keil@isoe.de
References
Thomas Kluge, Jutta Deffner, Konrad Götz, Stefan Liehr, Bernhard Michel, Florian Michel, Wolf Rüthrich: Integrierte Wasserbedarfsprognosen - Teil 2: Grundlagen und Methodik. GWF/Wasser Abwasser (im Druck)
Stefan Liehr: Driving Forces and Future Development Paths of Central Northern Namibia. In M. Burnes & A. Weaver (Hg.): Exploring Sustainability Science: A Southern African Perspective. AFRICAN SUN MeDIA, Stellenbosch 2008, S. 431-467
Detlev Ipsen, Georg Cichorowski, Engelbert Schramm: Wasserkultur. Beiträge zu einer nachhaltigen Stadtentwicklung. Stadtökologie Band 2. Analytica, Berlin 1998
Christiane Döll/Petra Döll (2006): Akteursanalyse und -modellierung im Rahmen des Projectss „Integrierte Analyse von mobilen, organischen Fremdstoffen in Fließgewässern“. In: J. Wittmann/Müller, M. (Hg.): Simulation in Umwelt- und Geowissenschaften. Shaker Verlag, Aachen. 2006, 109-118.
Stefan Liehr/Egon Becker/Florian Keil: Systemdynamiken.
In: E. Becker/Th. Jahn (Hg.), Social Ecology.
Grundzüge einer Wissenschaft von den gesellschaftlichen
Naturverhältnissen. Campus, Frankfurt/Main 2006, S.
267-283
Scenarios
Every management decision is based on an assessment of the future. Even if it is impossible to foresee the future, its success depends on the reliability of the assumptions made. The scenario technique is a strategic planning method which develops pictures of differing yet uncertain futures so as to deduce the consequences for decision-makers and improve the resilience of assumptions and thus the robustness of future strategies. This is therefore not only about anticipating possible developments, but analysing them as well.
Four questions guide the development of scenarios:
1) Which factors influence future developments?
2) How are these various factors interrelated?
3) Which developments are thus possible, and which are mutually exclusive?
4) Which consequences result from this?
Scenarios are required in those cases where extrapolative prognoses lack validity. Their possible applications are many and varied. For example:
- In the strategy development of companies and local authorities In risk management
- When assessing the impact of political decisions
- When training decision-makers
ISOE deploys the scenario technique:
- in facilitated processes with diverse teams which often include stakeholders
- in assessments and studies conducted with experts
ISOE’s interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary competencies make for coherent and convincing scenarios.
Contact Person:
Dr. Stefan Liehr, liehr@isoe.de
Dr. Florian Keil, keil@isoe.de