Contact Person:
Dr. Stefan Liehr, liehr@isoe.de
References
Wasserbedarfsprognose 2030 für das Versorgungsgebiet der Hamburger Wasserwerke GmbH. Auftrag für die Hamburger Wasserwerke (HWW) GmbH 2006-2007 ... more
INTAFERE – Integrierte Analyse von mobilen, organischen Fremdstoffe in Fließgewässern. Förderung: Ministerium für Wissenschaft und Kunst des Landes Hessen (HMWK) 2005-2007 ... more
Grossmann, J./Hofmann, H. (2008). Integrierte Wasserbedarfsprognose Teil 1: Erstellung eines innovativen Prognosemodells für HAMBURG WASSER. GWF, 10
Kluge, T., Deffner, J., Götz, K., Liehr, S., Michel, B., Michel, F., Rüthrich, W. (2008). Integrierte Wasserbedarfsprognosen - Teil 2: Grundlagen und Methodik. GWF, 10
Prognoses
An important goal of social-ecological research is the formulation of policy-oriented solutions to problems. Here prognoses in their various forms play a central role. Only with their help can societal patterns of action such as policy measures or consumer behavior be examined with respect to their influence on problem complexes. Formulating prognoses in response to concrete questions, and checking the degree of their accuracy, always involves at the same time a questioning, implicit or explicit, of the state of knowledge of the system of interdependencies under observation. Thus prognoses are of fundamental significance for the development of long-term strategies and their related decision making processes.
The requirements for achieving customized and valid prognoses include:
- a clear description of the interdependencies under observation (system definition => system analysis, discourse field analysis, actor analysis),
- working out a deeper understanding of a given system (system knowledge => models as instruments),
- dealing openly with uncertainty and non-knowledge (limits of knowledge => scenarios),
- a consideration of different forms of knowledge (knowledge integration => stakeholder participation),
- and flexible procedures for the representation of the relevant relationships (model integration => integrative modeling).
Depending on the question asked prognoses can be either qualitative or quantitative in nature, in so far as they either provide statements concerning trends in future developments or quantitative appraisals of development paths and corridors.
At ISOE prognoses are being used in the following areas:
- to forecast the water needs of water supply enterprises, and to support long-term planning processes, taking into consideration spatially related social factors and engineering-technical factors (project example)
- to evaluate the potential risks of micro-pollutants for surface water, and testing the effectiveness of possible options for action for various actors.