Contact Person:
Dr. Florian Keil,
keil@isoe.de
Dr. Stefan Liehr,
liehr@isoe.de
References
Brugnach, Marcela/Andrew Tagg/Wim J. de Lange/Florian Keil (2007): Uncertainty Matters: Computer Models at the Science–Policy Interface. Water Resources Management. 21(7), 1075-1090
Kluge, T./Liehr, S./Schramm, E. (2007). Strukturveränderungen und neue Verfahren in der Ressourcenregulation. ISOE-Diskussionspapiere 27, Institute for Social-Ecological Research (ISOE), Frankfurt am Main.
Kluge, T./Deffner, J./Götz, K./Liehr, S./Michel, B./Michel, F./Rüthrich, W. (2008a). Integrierte Wasserbedarfsprognosen - Teil 2: Grundlagen und Methodik. GWF, 10:in press.
Liehr, S. (2008). Driving Forces and Future Development Paths of Central Northern Namibia. In Burnes, M. and Weaver, A., editors, Exploring Sustainability Science: A Southern African Perspective, chapter 13, pages 431-467. AFRICAN SUN MeDIA, Stellenbosch, South Africa.
Liehr, S. (2005). Modellierung in der Demographie. In Hertler, C. and Hummel, D., editors, Bevölkerung und Versorgungssysteme - Modelle für Wechselwirkungen, demons working paper 5, pages 47-63. Institute for Social-Ecological Research (ISOE), Frankfurt am Main.
Liehr, S. (2006). Decision Support Systeme in partizipativen, sozial-ökologischen Regulationsprozessen. Eine Betrachtung aus kybernetischer Perspektive. ISOE-Diskussionspapiere 26, Institute for Social-Ecological Research (ISOE), Frankfurt am Main.
Modeling
Formal models are used in research at ISOE in two areas. First, models are developed as instruments for supporting social learning processes during transdisciplinary stakeholder dialogues. The formulation of problem descriptions in the context of sustainable development involves dealing with complex systemic relationships – the issues of which ecological consequences specific forms of societal action have and how these consequences in turn feedback into society is for most actors difficult to comprehend. Integrated models can support learning processes here to the extent that they make clear not only the consequences of one’s own actions for all concerned but also how such actions mutually condition everyone’s options.
The transparency of a model is in this context essential to its acceptance. ISOE therefore employs the method of participative modeling – the design of a model is the result of a dialogue with stakeholders. In developing such models qualitative and quantitative methods such as systems-dynamic approaches or agent-based modeling are put to use. Also, statistical models and quantitative prognosis models are developed for definable areas or issues, as, for example, with the preparation of needs prognoses for specific areas of provisioning. Here ISOE has specialized in procedures that make possible the integration of differentiated socio-structural data and data on behavior orientation.
Contact Person:
Dr. Florian Keil,
keil@isoe.de
Dr. Stefan Liehr,
liehr@isoe.de