Population Dynamics and Supply

Research on demographic development for the most part involves either an analysis of the effects of population development on societal sub-areas (e.g., social security systems, employment market) or of the ecological effects of such development (e.g., resource use, land use). Social-ecological research at ISOE, in contrast, concentrates on the mutual interactions between demographic and social-ecological processes, and the problems resulting from such interaction. Population dynamics, changes in birth rates, life expectancy, age structure, migration movements, urbanization processes and so on are all influenced by a play of biological, ecological, social and economic factors, and influence these factors in turn. Societal and natural processes superimpose on, and penetrate, one another, and can lead to the formation of complex crisis dynamics. Thus problems of regulation become central.  

Demographic changes are investigated in their mutual interaction with those ecosystems used by humans. Social-ecological systems ‑ for example, supply systems for water, food or energy ‑ are regulated arrangements dependent on population development, institutionally specific general conditions, technologies, social practices and forms of knowledge, with these arrangement structuring in turn relations between natural resources and users. Population dynamics, then, constitute a boundary condition of societal processes of development; thus, societal and demographic developments are interdependent, with neither being unidirectionally determinant or determined. A social-ecological analysis of problems related to demographic development, therefore, focuses on missing or underdeveloped possibilities for adaptation in response to demographic changes on the part of societies. Such analysis involves in particular:  

• a differentiation of population dynamics with respect to quantitative changes (e.g., changes in the number and distribution of residents in an area) and qualitative changes (e.g., social structure, household form);
• he importance of migration processes with respect to small-scale changes, social differentiation and prognostic uncertainty;
• a spatial and temporal differentiation of demographic processes in different regions (e.g., the juxtaposition of growth and shrinkage processes);
• an historical perspective on development processes and an international orientation.    

Focus of Research

• Spatial aspects of supply systems: relations between the spatial distribution of natural resources and ‘resource use areas.’
• Non-linear developments: relations among changes in demand, costs and the development of infrastructures.
• Food supply and urbanization processes.
• With respect to the search for solutions to problems, the social-ecological perspective concentrates on the question of the adaptive and regulation capabilities of supply systems, with particular emphasis on feedback processes

Contact Person: Dr. Diana Hummel

hummel@isoe.de

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